Our New World
With so much change to digest, so many glaring new realities to confront daily, the modern consumer is facing an uncharted era of humanity.
Rarely have we seen a time in modern history that has been subject to change on the scale of what we have witnessed and lived through over the past several years. The global pandemic shut down schools and offices, highlighting the flaws in many of our established institutions. The healthcare crisis laid bare untenable realities about social inequities. Social and political unrest spilled into the streets and onto our iPhones, permeating our consciousness. Climate change accelerated into a daily reality and ever-present danger. And now, with a recession and rising inflation looming, we are all forced to think hard about our needs while navigating mounting uncertainty and personal and societal adversities.
Against this backdrop, we at Forerunner believe that charting a path to a better future, one that lifts us from the challenges of today, first requires reacquainting ourselves with the Consumer:
Against this backdrop, we at Forerunner believe that charting a path to a better future, one that lifts us from the challenges of today, first requires reacquainting ourselves with the Consumer:
Who is today’s modern consumer?
What do we need in order to build purpose, resilience, and direction over the next decade?
Who We Are
Forerunner is a venture capital firm dedicated to understanding the modern consumer mindset and partnering with the entrepreneurs and companies poised to deliver on their behalf.
Since our inception in 2012, the consumer has been our North Star. We commit ourselves to having a constant pulse on what people are doing and why, and we closely observe how world events shape the way we live. We study subtle changes in people’s behavior and mindset, and project how needs and priorities might shift as people seek solutions for critical problems and new aspirations.
Research Methodology
To approach this research effort with the utmost objectivity, we conducted a 100+ question quantitative survey of more than 4,300 participants aged 18+ in the United States in partnership with Bain & Company, a global strategy consulting firm, asking questions across consumer behavior, preferences, demographics, and attitudinal perspectives. We followed up with qualitative interviews with respondents, and mapped credit card data to measure “say vs. do” gaps. Hundreds of iterations of statistical analyses were used to refine the data output and identify key consumer clusters.
Welcome to The Dinner Party
Our research uncovers eight clusters of consumer archetypes, highlighting the key values and behaviors that align us and make us different, and how certain personalities and experiences lead to unique perspectives on the future. We found these archetypes aligned more on life experience than age or demographic. Concerns and priorities were more similar than different across personas, which came as a surprise — and perhaps the most important thread was a consistent simple issue across all archetypes:
The consumer has been upended by change in every aspect of life and is facing mounting adversity. We are all searching for varying degrees of purpose, direction, and resilience to get back to solid footing and a path towards a brighter future.
Sick-care Evolves To Well-care
Health & wellness have emerged as top priorities — for all. Consumers are alert to the critical need to own their health destinies, but still feel like they’re climbing a mountain when it comes to being in control of their personal health.
Today, Health and Wellness as a mindset has reached a critical mass, with 54% of respondents indicating it’s a main focus area in their lives. But while plenty of products and services have emerged over the years to help identify what’s wrong — such as low levels of movement, inadequate sleep, risk of future disease — it hasn’t been as obvious how to close the loop and pursue pathways for improvement with lasting, tangible results. People are now grasping for how to make progress. Of the respondents, 41% say they wish it was easier to achieve their health goals — listing health as more challenging to control than finances, work, school, and family & relationships.
A boom in consumer health awareness has given way to a more dynamic mosaic of how we understand and evaluate our wellbeing. While largely positive and aspirational, this evolution has also led many to feel inadequate and lacking agency with a growing list of health-related domains to optimize — and not enough time, money, or guidance to chart a path forward. There is now growing urgency for products, services, communities where consumers of all types can learn how to prioritize the health areas most relevant to them and make sustainable changes.
A boom in consumer health awareness has given way to a more dynamic mosaic of how we understand and evaluate our wellbeing. While largely positive and aspirational, this evolution has also led many to feel inadequate and lacking agency with a growing list of health-related domains to optimize — and not enough time, money, or guidance to chart a path forward. There is now growing urgency for products, services, communities where consumers of all types can learn how to prioritize the health areas most relevant to them and make sustainable changes.
Money Matters
After a decade of on-demand fever, consumers are re-evaluating the value of their dollars.
When asked about how they prioritize time, cost and convenience, 61% of all respondents said they prioritize money over convenience and 66% said they prefer to DIY vs. paying to outsource. Interest in DIY is spiking across all the archetypes, even and especially for the more time-constrained, family-oriented archetypes.
While many durable, important businesses have been built within the on-demand industry, it seems the larger market may now be oversaturated and thwarted by an over emphasis on convenience vs. cost. We imagine this marks the beginning of a pendulum swing to a place of balancing price and value with urgency and convenience. This may stem from the pandemic reintroducing people to living quieter, simpler lives where DIY activities of all forms (ex: building standing desks, cooking, dying one’s own hair, etc.) experienced a renaissance. Presumably, a looming recession and rising inflation will continue to drive people away from mounting service fees.
In a world where people are increasingly discerning about how they spend their money, we’re likely to see new needs emerge as on-demand habits begin to unwind and more traditional approaches come back into focus. And with a consumer group seemingly up for doing the work again, opportunity exists to provide relevant tools and resources for people who are now actively looking to do more with less, or re-engage in activities and experiences that help harken back to a simpler life.
While many durable, important businesses have been built within the on-demand industry, it seems the larger market may now be oversaturated and thwarted by an over emphasis on convenience vs. cost. We imagine this marks the beginning of a pendulum swing to a place of balancing price and value with urgency and convenience. This may stem from the pandemic reintroducing people to living quieter, simpler lives where DIY activities of all forms (ex: building standing desks, cooking, dying one’s own hair, etc.) experienced a renaissance. Presumably, a looming recession and rising inflation will continue to drive people away from mounting service fees.
In a world where people are increasingly discerning about how they spend their money, we’re likely to see new needs emerge as on-demand habits begin to unwind and more traditional approaches come back into focus. And with a consumer group seemingly up for doing the work again, opportunity exists to provide relevant tools and resources for people who are now actively looking to do more with less, or re-engage in activities and experiences that help harken back to a simpler life.
Choice is The Future of Work
A new era of “work” is evolving. People are balancing desire for purpose-driven work with the realities of financial strains growing more severe. Meanwhile, an increased desire for flexibility has resulted in a dearth of direction and support for many.
When participants were asked about work-related concerns, work/life balance surfaced as an important issue across the board, but making more money is still of utmost importance and concern #1 for people across all life stages and archetypes. Real world responsibilities appear to dominate the anecdotal trend towards passion-based work in the immediate data, but there is still a shift in people choosing work from a different set of motivations than generations past.
Alongside the shift toward remote work, the past decade brought a rise in gig workers and side hustlers, of which 30% identify as “workaholics” and feeling financially strapped with lower levels of financial confidence: around 50% are working to pay off loans or debt and living paycheck to paycheck. Gig workers and side hustlers also have an above-average concern for mental health and finding deeper connections with partners and friends, which could be connected to having more isolated work.
The future of work is not a matter of remote vs. in-office – it is about balancing practicalities with purpose, as individual definitions of purpose evolves throughout people’s lives.
Alongside the shift toward remote work, the past decade brought a rise in gig workers and side hustlers, of which 30% identify as “workaholics” and feeling financially strapped with lower levels of financial confidence: around 50% are working to pay off loans or debt and living paycheck to paycheck. Gig workers and side hustlers also have an above-average concern for mental health and finding deeper connections with partners and friends, which could be connected to having more isolated work.
The future of work is not a matter of remote vs. in-office – it is about balancing practicalities with purpose, as individual definitions of purpose evolves throughout people’s lives.
New Age Activism
Consumers are more likely to “vote” with their dollars than their time. Political activism appears to be a privilege, while new, non-traditional avenues for activism emerge.
The past several years of social unrest across America have highlighted the wide range of experiences, equity and opinions that exist across our diverse demographic, shifting how people spend time and energy on social and political pursuits. While many are motivated by social causes like giving to charity, less are inclined to political activism. About 10% of all respondents attended a political event or rally in the past year, but 50% donated to charity during the same period.
Activism enthusiasts, defined as those who have both attended a political protest or rally and donated to a charitable organization or cause in the last 12 months, represent 5% of the overall group. They primarily consist of young-skewing, white men with limited household responsibilities. They also tend to be liberal-leaning early tech adopters with above-average prioritization of self care.
While the Gen-Z- and millennial-dominant archetypes are often recognized as politically-charged and socially-conscious, the data shows they’re still early in finding how they want to have impact. Early indicators show the “activism” of the next generation may not be as grounded in political demonstrations as it is embedded in day-to-day life — choosing to work for organizations or buy products and services aligned with one’s values. The detachment young generations feel from government is driving inspiration for activism in non-traditional ways, as employees and consumers.
Activism enthusiasts, defined as those who have both attended a political protest or rally and donated to a charitable organization or cause in the last 12 months, represent 5% of the overall group. They primarily consist of young-skewing, white men with limited household responsibilities. They also tend to be liberal-leaning early tech adopters with above-average prioritization of self care.
While the Gen-Z- and millennial-dominant archetypes are often recognized as politically-charged and socially-conscious, the data shows they’re still early in finding how they want to have impact. Early indicators show the “activism” of the next generation may not be as grounded in political demonstrations as it is embedded in day-to-day life — choosing to work for organizations or buy products and services aligned with one’s values. The detachment young generations feel from government is driving inspiration for activism in non-traditional ways, as employees and consumers.
The Need for Community is Real
With the fading influence of organized religion, consumers are exploring support in other forms of spirituality and community.
Engagement in religion has seen a precipitous decline for the majority of people. In 2020, church memberships dipped to a record low of 47%, and only 30% of respondents consider religion and spirituality an important part of their lives. Of this 30%, people are more inclined to describe themselves as “spiritual” rather than “religious.” Additionally, there is limited difference in the importance of spirituality and organized religion across age groups, which suggests not just a groundswell of change across younger cohorts but also diminishing affinity across older generations too.
The fading influence of organized religion, both as a spiritual practice and as a community stronghold, is having a unique impact on cultural values and behaviors. Practices like manifesting, astrology, and tarot readings have seen a boom in popularity, alongside music festivals, cult brands and group fitness, as people aim to fill the void for community and belief that was once centralized around the church.
The church was not just a powerful gathering place for belief, it was a foundation for meeting new values-aligned friends or companions, childcare and charity. In what new ways can people find a positive sense of community and shared values as organized religion loses popularity?
The fading influence of organized religion, both as a spiritual practice and as a community stronghold, is having a unique impact on cultural values and behaviors. Practices like manifesting, astrology, and tarot readings have seen a boom in popularity, alongside music festivals, cult brands and group fitness, as people aim to fill the void for community and belief that was once centralized around the church.
The church was not just a powerful gathering place for belief, it was a foundation for meeting new values-aligned friends or companions, childcare and charity. In what new ways can people find a positive sense of community and shared values as organized religion loses popularity?
Sustainability Moves from Transition to Table Stakes
The importance and urgency of sustainability is rising in consumer’s minds, despite avenues to act on this value still being nascent.
Sustainability has become a key focus across many life areas, with 31% of participants stating that they spend a lot of time thinking about the environment, sustainability, and climate change, and 43% saying it’s important to find sustainable options across various categories of household and personal spend.
Consumers have created the flywheel for demand, but it’s on businesses to deliver solutions in an affordable, value-aligned way, rather than consumers shouldering the weight of change with high costs and friction. Eventually, increased standardization of sustainable business practices will mean increased competition for appealing to the growing set of sustainability-minded consumers — ultimately driving greater practicality and accessibility.
Much like how wellness started out as a niche emerging trend before proliferating all consumer mindsets today, sustainability is in an awkward transitionary period from early to mainstream. The degree of environmental enthusiasm is varied amongst consumer archetypes today, but it will eventually become a fully integrated lifestyle for all. The reality is that this progression is both essential and inevitable for a prosperous future.
Consumers have created the flywheel for demand, but it’s on businesses to deliver solutions in an affordable, value-aligned way, rather than consumers shouldering the weight of change with high costs and friction. Eventually, increased standardization of sustainable business practices will mean increased competition for appealing to the growing set of sustainability-minded consumers — ultimately driving greater practicality and accessibility.
Much like how wellness started out as a niche emerging trend before proliferating all consumer mindsets today, sustainability is in an awkward transitionary period from early to mainstream. The degree of environmental enthusiasm is varied amongst consumer archetypes today, but it will eventually become a fully integrated lifestyle for all. The reality is that this progression is both essential and inevitable for a prosperous future.
For an optimistic future, people are seeking a return to the fundamentals.
When asked how optimistic they are about the future, respondents across all archetypes said they were more optimistic about their own future (53%) than that of their children (41%) or the world (27%), pointing to elements of hope mixed with profound doubt about long-term trajectories.
When asked how respondents they see their lives in the next 12 months, 55% of respondents report they are “taking it one day at a time,” 21% are trying to “get back to how things were” before the upheaval of the past few years, 15% eager to “turn a new leaf” heading into future, while 9% are looking to make up for lost time.
It is very telling that over half of consumers, in one way or another, are looking to get back to the basics — living day by day, thinking through priorities, needs and next steps. After more than a decade of digital proliferation and hyper consumerism that unbound our way of communication, life and work, punctuated by several years of worldwide solidarity of isolation, we now have an opportunity to emerge with fresh thinking and a renewed sense of purpose.
When asked how respondents they see their lives in the next 12 months, 55% of respondents report they are “taking it one day at a time,” 21% are trying to “get back to how things were” before the upheaval of the past few years, 15% eager to “turn a new leaf” heading into future, while 9% are looking to make up for lost time.
It is very telling that over half of consumers, in one way or another, are looking to get back to the basics — living day by day, thinking through priorities, needs and next steps. After more than a decade of digital proliferation and hyper consumerism that unbound our way of communication, life and work, punctuated by several years of worldwide solidarity of isolation, we now have an opportunity to emerge with fresh thinking and a renewed sense of purpose.
The next wave of game-changing companies will be life-changing companies.
We at Forerunner believe the next decade of game-changing companies, services and products will be life-changing ones addressing society’s truest needs: building, purpose, self-reliance and direction, advancing sustainable offerings, creating deeper connections, fueling economic resilience, and supporting greater health. Perhaps with a restored focus on core life needs and fundamentals, we’ll start to see an even more optimistic group of consumers, who see a brighter future that they can impact with their voices, values, and time.
Which dinner guest are you?
Each dinner guest represents a different consumer archetype. Discover yours and share it with the world.
